What is the significance of a single Presidential election poll? It turns out, not much. Whether it be national polling firm or a major news network, following just one of them can be very misleading. The main reason for this is the fact that every poll is polled differently. So which one is the right one then? The answer, some of them.
What I mean by that is that for a true poll to be truly relevant, it has to be based off many different polls. Luckily this is not a new concept. The most accurate polls, based on fundamental statistics, would be the polls at FiveThirtyEight.com. I attribute their accuracy to the fact that they don’t simple take a average of polls, but instead ‘weight’ each poll based on historical data and performance.
I caution anyone that simply takes a polls value just from it’s numbers. Consider the latest IBD/Tipp Tracking poll for day 11 which gives McCain a 50 point lead against Obama in the 18-24 age group. Obviously that is far beyond reasonable data. I recommend you check out FiveThirtyEight.com and read about their polling methods for more insight on how their polling works.
No Comments